I invest
Macro, central banks, positioning, valuation and event risk across rates, FX, equities, credit and commodities.
The models behind the moves.
Nowcasts and central-bank analysis, systematic positioning, fair value, narrative virality, and weather and crop intelligence. Built in-house, updated daily, and turned into research that ends in a conclusion.
- 56
markets, every trading day
Equities, rates, FX, credit, energy, metals, grains and crypto, plus 11 US equity sectors.
- 50+
models built in-house
From nowcasts and central-bank paths to positioning, flows and market fragility.
- 16
crop regions, from the US Corn Belt to the cocoa belt
Rain, heat and soil moisture against every season since 1991, frost risk for winter wheat, and what the seasonal forecasts expect next.
How 45 markets move together
This week
Last three months of daily moves. No single past regime fits this week.
Stocks vs Treasuries
+0.42
−1+1
Tightest group
Credit
average 0.87
Strong links
122
pairs above 0.5
Move togetherMove oppositeLines shown above 0.45
Free every Saturday
The Weekend Editorial.
One idea from our models each weekend: what the evidence says, and why it differs from the popular read.
Built for decisions
Every analysis ends in an answer.
- If equities fall 5% next week, how much will trend followers be forced to sell?
- Is the market pricing too many rate cuts, and what happens to the curve if it is wrong?
- Should we cover wheat for the next quarter now, or do weather and export supply argue for waiting?
- What would an oil shock do to Euro Area inflation and the ECB?
Where would you like to start?
I buy, sell or hedge commodities
Weather, crops, trade, freight, costs and money flows, turned into buying and hedging decisions.
See agricultureProprietary models
Models you won't find elsewhere.
Built in-house, tested against history, and kept only if they hold up.
Growth & inflation nowcasts
Where growth and inflation are heading before the official release.
Central-bank assessment
What central banks are likely to do, against what markets price.
Systematic positioning
Estimated positioning of trend followers and other systematic funds across markets.
Flow simulator
How much systematic funds would buy or sell as prices move, and at which levels.
Systematic fair value
Where each market trades against its fundamental anchors, and how far it has stretched.
Narrative virality
Which market stories are gaining attention, and where the narrative runs ahead of prices.
Market fragility
How vulnerable markets are to a sharp move, beyond what volatility shows.
Macro scenario simulator
How a shock travels through households, firms, inflation and policy.
Inside the portal
See the models at work.
What we cover
Three layers, one view.
A stronger dollar makes US grain more expensive abroad. A drought can lift food prices and shift interest-rate expectations. We analyse them together.
Macro & policy
Growth and inflation nowcasts, central-bank paths and financial conditions.
Financial markets
Valuation, positioning, flows and event risk across rates, FX, equities, credit and commodities.
Agriculture & commodities
Weather and crops, trade flows, freight, fertiliser and energy costs, and policy.
The portal
One portal. Six questions every investor asks.
Where is the cycle?
GDP and inflation nowcasts, recession indicators and the labour market.
What will central banks do?
Expected policy paths against what markets price.
Who is positioned where?
Trend followers and other systematic funds, and how crowded each trade is.
What is cheap or rich?
Fair value across assets, carry and relative stretch.
What could move markets?
Scheduled catalysts, geopolitical risk and the narratives driving prices.
Is market risk rising?
Market fragility, volatility, financial conditions and liquidity.
Plus a daily brief, a market board that weighs the evidence for and against every market, and a market check to test a view before you act.
Request portal accessHow we work
How we cover this much.
State-of-the-art AI pipelines collect, check and update thousands of data points every day across economies, markets and crop regions. That leaves our analysts free for what matters most: deciding what is important and what it means.
We don't trade, broker or sell financial products. Our analysis is our only product, which keeps it independent.
FAQ
What does Newral do?
Newral provides research and analytics that connect the economy, financial markets and physical commodities, delivered through a client portal, written research and bespoke work.
Who is it for?
Professional investors, and businesses that buy, sell or hedge commodities.
Are you independent?
Yes. Newral does not trade, broker or sell financial products. We are paid for our analysis, nothing else.
What is in the portal?
Proprietary models and dashboards organised around six questions: the economic cycle, central banks, positioning, valuation, market-moving events and market risk — plus a daily brief, a market board and a market check.
Do you cover agriculture?
Yes. We publish agricultural market research covering weather, crops, trade, freight, costs and policy, and build bespoke analysis for commodity buyers and sellers.
How do I get access?
Request portal access or a sample note through the contact form. We respond within one to two business days.