Where is the cycle?
GDP and inflation nowcasts, business-cycle and recession indicators, and the labour market — before the official releases.
How it worksThe portal
One portal for the questions that move markets.
Proprietary models, live dashboards and a daily brief — organised around the six questions investors ask every day.
Inside the portal
Look inside the portal.
Watch an 80-second tour, click through the screens at your own pace, or open a real portal page.
Click through the portal
Eight screens, at your own pace.
1 of 8
Today
The front page, written every evening.
What moved, why it matters, and which models changed their view. Start here each morning.
One question at a time
Six short clips, 18 seconds each, one for each question the portal answers.
Clip 1 · 18 seconds
Where is the cycle?
Clip 2 · 18 seconds
What will central banks do?
Clip 3 · 18 seconds
Is market risk rising?
Clip 4 · 18 seconds
Who is positioned where?
Clip 5 · 18 seconds
What is cheap or rich?
Clip 6 · 18 seconds
What could move markets?
What's inside
Six questions, answered with evidence.
What will central banks do?
Our central-bank assessment, expected policy paths against what markets price, and where rates trade versus fair value.
How it worksWho is positioned where?
Estimated positioning of trend followers and other systematic funds, futures positioning, fund flows, and how crowded each trade is.
How it worksWhat is cheap or rich?
Systematic fair value across assets, carry and relative stretch across sectors, plus company-level assessment for covered US equities.
How it worksWhat could move markets?
Scheduled catalysts, geopolitical event risk with market-implied probabilities, and the narratives driving prices.
How it worksIs market risk rising?
Market fragility, volatility, financial conditions and liquidity around the current view.
How it worksExample: who is positioned where
Tools that go further
Test ideas before you act.
Flow simulator
See how much trend followers would buy or sell if prices rise or fall from here, and at which levels that pressure builds.
How it works
Macro scenario simulator
Follow a shock — an oil spike, a rate hike, a fiscal change — as it travels through households, firms, inflation and policy.
How it worksNarrative virality
Which market stories are gaining attention, and where the narrative runs ahead of prices.
How it worksMarket fragility
How vulnerable markets are to a sharp move, beyond what volatility shows.
How it worksMarket board
Every market on one board, with the evidence for and against each, and where it conflicts.
Market check
Bring your own view on a market and see what supports it, what challenges it, and what would change it.
Daily brief
The most important changes across the economy and markets, summarised every day.
Alongside the portal
Research, delivered where you read.
Written research on macro, markets and agriculture arrives by email and PDF, so it reaches you even where institutional systems block web platforms.
Explore research