Weekend Editorial — free every Saturday
One idea from our models each weekend: what the evidence says, and why it differs from the popular read.
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Research that ends in a conclusion.
Written notes on the economy, financial markets and agricultural markets — what matters, why, and what would change our view.
Free every Saturday
The Weekend Editorial.
One idea from our models each weekend: what the evidence says, and why it differs from the popular read.
Series
Our research series
Systematic positioning report
Where trend followers and other systematic funds are positioned, how much they would buy or sell as prices move, and the levels where that pressure builds.
See the series and request a sampleCross-asset report
What changed across rates, FX, equities, credit and commodities, and what it means.
See the series and request a sampleAgricultural markets research
Weather and crops, demand and trade, costs, policy and money flows across grains, oilseeds and related markets.
See the series and request a sampleCoverage
What we cover.
The economy, financial markets and physical commodities — analysed together, because each moves the others.
Macro & policy
Focused on the United States and the Euro Area.
Growth & cycle
GDP nowcasts, business-cycle position, recession probability and the labour market.
How it worksInflation
Inflation nowcasts and the pressures behind upcoming readings.
How it worksCentral banks
Our assessment of the Fed and ECB, policy paths against market pricing, and policy-rule benchmarks.
How it worksFinancial conditions & liquidity
Whether conditions amplify or restrain the macro view.
Scenarios
How shocks travel through households, firms, inflation and policy.
How it works
Financial markets
Global coverage across the major asset classes.
Rates
Curves, term premium and fair value.
FX
Fair value, carry and volatility.
How it worksEquities
Market internals, dispersion, sector stretch and company-level assessment for covered US equities.
Credit
Financing conditions and signs of stress or resilience.
Energy & metals
Valuation, supply, positioning and the global cycle.
Positioning & flows
Trend-follower estimates, futures positioning, fund flows and crowding.
How it worksEvent risk
Geopolitical and scheduled risks, with market-implied probabilities.
Agriculture & commodities
Grains, oilseeds and related markets, from the field to the futures curve.
Weather & crops
16 key crop regions tracked against more than 30 years of history, plus global crop balances.
How it worksDemand & trade
Importers, exporters, feed and processing demand.
Freight & costs
Shipping, fertiliser, energy and currencies.
Policy & geopolitics
Export restrictions, tariffs, conflict and their effect on supply.
Positioning
How funds and trend followers are positioned in agricultural futures.
Connected
Why we analyse them together.
Currencies and grain
A stronger dollar makes US grain more expensive abroad and shifts export demand.
Weather and inflation
A failed harvest can lift food prices and change what central banks do next.
Rates and positioning
A repricing of interest rates can force systematic funds to trade across every asset class.
Structure
Built the same way, every time.
The conclusion first
Each note opens with what we think and why it matters.
The evidence
Data and models that support the view — and the evidence that cuts against it.
The implications
What it means for markets, prices and decisions.
What would change our view
The developments that would make us think again.
Example
Delivery
Delivered where you read.
Research arrives by email with a PDF attached, so it reaches you even where institutional systems block web platforms. Portal clients also find every note in the portal.